Saturday, May 5, 2012

Mayweather Jr. vs. Cotto Betting Lines

As we sit on the doorstep of  Mayweather Jr. vs. Cotto, it's time to take a look at the the current money lines and odds for the 'HBO PPV' event tonight.

First, a few basics when it comes to betting on Boxing and Mixed Martial Arts. If you can't abide by these general guidelines, you will have no chance of incrementally growing your bankroll over time.

Rule number one.

Never bet more than roughly 2-5% of your total bankroll. This means if you have $100 on your online betting account, a $5 dollar bet would be about the right amount. The exact amount will be determined by your gut instinct as a knowledgeable fight fan.

Rule number two.

You won't make long term incremental gains by betting on the favorites every time. This mostly pertains to MMA where you see better matchups than the sport of boxing unfortunately.

In boxing, I would recommend betting on the favorite such as Mayweather Jr. in tonights example, possibly even as a parlay with another heavy favorite on the main-card like Saul Alvarez over Shane Mosely.

The parlay, or the stringing of 2 or more favorites together makes for a larger return versus the risk.

 History has shown that in the main and co-main events of MMA, the favorite wins roughly 48-50% of the time. 

The amount of money wagered on a favorite versus the return is not going to be very good. For example, you might have to place $8 dollars on Anderson Silva to win $1.

As for the moneylines in tonight's Mayweather Jr. vs. Cotto matchup, in many cases, Mayweather Jr. has been listed as the heavy favorite at (-)700. Cotto is the huge underdog listed at a (+)450.

In this example, you would have to wager $7.00 on Mayweather Jr. to win $1. Not the best way to conduct business over the long term based on the amount risked versus the return. On the flip-side, every $1 you place on Cotto would give you a return of $4.50 in the event of a win for the underdog.

Rule number three. Don't feel like you have to bet on every fight of every card. I like to pick my spots where I see multiple strong favorites or an underdog that is a good risk.

Be patient.

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See you at the fights!